*Long Post* Requesting feedback on probability-manipulation moves

tl;dr - Need help with creating moves and some mechanics for a PbtA-powered game  I'm working on that involves multiple universes.

By way of background ... The sci-fi/space opera game I'm working on involves probability manipulation of a method much different than, say, the Scarlet Witch. It's based on the many-worlds interpretation of reality. The simplified description is that each event in a universe causes another reality to be created, branching off from the reality in which the original event occurred. At the center of all of the branches, the proverbial tree trunk, is what I'm calling the Configuration Plane (CP), a plane of existence that is sort of a Dewey Decimal system, tracking everything down to the subatomic particle level, indexing everything across all of the multiverses.

It's a concept I'm basing on Pierre-Simon Laplace's “Philosophical Essay on Probabilitie,”  where a theoretical “Demon” (not the name he gave it, but one it was later basically assigned by other philosophers & scientists) is basically the CP.  Laplace described the creature's intellect as being  so vast that it, “would know all forces that set nature in motion, and all positions of all items of which nature is composed”  and can, “embrace in a single formula the movements of the greatest bodies of the universe and those of the tiniest atom; for such an intellect nothing would be uncertain and the future just like the past would be present before its eyes."
   
In the game there are two groups. The similarity between them is that through a two stage process each is able to move from the existence they are currently in to one in which an event they are trying to achieve is happening.  One group is able to directly contact the demon to establish in which universe the event is happening (Stage 1). Once that happens the person summons what I'm calling a "Reactive Spark" that acts as the trigger for the person's switch from their existence, up to the Plane, through the demon and down the branch that leads to the alternate reality (Stage 2). I'm calling the entire two-stage process the act of creating a "Cusp."

The second group has the ability to create the Spark (Stage 2) but can't use the Demon to calculate to which plane they need to move. Instead they rely on an unbelievably powerful computer system that stretches across entire planets (and is in fact the planets). The computer, known as the Configuration Engine, calculates the reality in which the event is happening, instantly sending that information to the person, who then creates the Reactive Spark, moving up to the CP and down the branch specified by the Configuration Engine.

The actual reality switch is instantaneous. In each case the person in one universe is swapped for their counterpart in the other  (part of the conservation of energy). The people in the universe in which the person arrived don't know any swap has occurred - to them whatever is about to happen was what was going to happen anyway.

The background story explains how the different groups came to be, the Configuration Engine, etc.

I think the system would work really well in a PbtA-setting. The concept of manipulating reality opens itself up nicely to diaglog'ing what's going on and gives a lot of possibilities for "What are you doing?" role playing. I wanted to reach out to the group to get their thoughts on Moves and mechanics.

There are of course going to be basic moves for different types of combat, different piloting moves, interpersonal actions, etc. But when it comes to the manipulation would the group recommend two separate moves? One for the Reactive Spark and a separate for actually creating the Cusp? If so, if I understand it there's only one move per turn, correct? That would divide the Cusp across two turns, which I can see being similar to players having a chance to interrupt a mage casting a spell in fantasy games.

I'm struggling with defining the extent of just what players able to do when they switch universes. Causing damage to a target (the player needs to role play just how the damage is caused) can be limited by the roll. On a 10+ roll they cause that amount of damage (will obviously need to set the amount of player Health appropriately to avoid one-hit kills) and maybe on the 7-9 they take a portion of that amount of damage. Healing could be the same, in terms of damage healed. But what about non-combat things? If they want to move into a reality in which they can fly? Or teleport? Or create a spaceship? Or, or, or ...

I was thinking that maybe the roll gets tied to a chart that provides a maximum amount of what can be manipulated, in terms of distance, weight/mass, period of time, etc. So a roll of 10 would mean the manipulation could affect 100 miles if they're trying to do something related to distance, 1000lbs if it's something manipulating mass, etc.

In order to make it so players can't just constantly whip reality around, the GM fiat is that each time a Cusp occurs the person accumulates points that can eventually lead to a rip in the portion of the Configuration Plane (a "Probability Collapse"). If the rip occurs they make it to the Plane but get lost there, unable to reach the branch that leads to the reality they were trying to reach.  On a 1-6, something bad happens and they accumulate (for example) a number of points equal to the stat they use for the die role + 2 (I'm most likely going to have a stat only the folks who can create Cusps have. The are other classes don't need it). If they role a 7-9, something happens and they add a number of points equal to the stat. 10+ obviously it works. The points dissipate over some length of time.

Really hoping to get folks' feedback, suggestions, recommendations, etc. Thanks! :)

Disregarding specific examples, I'm thinking there are two variables that determines the difficulty of this reality jumping. One I'll call distance, and one I'll call precision.

Distance is a measure of how far back the split between universes occurred. So a universe where Napoleon won the Napoleonic war is more distant than one where your opponent actually missed you with that gunshot three seconds ago.

Precision is a measure of how many "subevents" that need to line up just right, to arrive at the present that you want. So a universe where your opponent purely misses is less precise than one where he actually hits the guy behind you, which is less precise than a universe where he hits that guy right between the eyes.

More distant universes inherently requires more energy to get an equally precise present. This is because more events need to line up just right, to arrive at the same result. If your opponent shot you yesterday, and you want to end up in the exactly same situation that you are in now, except you don't have a gunshot wound (IE, he didn't hit you yesterday), you are going to need to spend a lot more energy, than if you had negated the gunshot wound three seconds after he shot you.

How difficult you want more distant places/more precise events to be, depends on the sort of campaign/setting you want to have.

With cheap distance but expensive precision, the players can easily jump to the universe where Napoleon won the war, but will have a hard time controlling what exactly is going on in that universe. For short jumps, that might mean jumping so that your opponent didn't shoot you, but instead finding yourself in a universe where you got knocked out the window instead.

With expensive distance but cheap precision, players purely be changing "local" stuff. So no traveling to alternate timelines. Instead the jumpers have a large degree of control over the events of now and a few seconds back. Impossible dodging, incredible luck and other Matrix-style stuff occurs.

With expensive distance and expensive precision, jumping more or less just becomes a reroll. You can change the immediate past, but you have no control over what you get instead.

With cheap distance and cheap precision, you get both the possibility of alternate timelines, and Matrix-style dodging and precision shots. In addition there comes the question of how much more expensive that precision becomes with distance. Can you jump to the exact same situation that you are in now, but in an alternate universe where Napoleon won the war, so that of being a cop, your opponent is now a gendarm and a member of the illuminati? Or the exact same situation in an alternate world where dinosaurs involved into dragons, so in just a sec, a dragon is going to burst in through the roof.

No matter what configuration, I'm thinking of three general moves, one dealing with distant jumps, and two dealing with precise jumps, with some tweaks depending on the exact setup that you want. Generally the moves generally results in less precision, the worse the roll.

Distant Jumping
State what kind of alternate timeline you want to end up in (one changed event in the past)
10+: You get more or less exactly what you wanted (A Franco-dominated world)
7-9: You get what you wanted, but with other major events interfering (Napoleon won, securing Europe, but Japan won the world war in 1928 and subjugated North America)
6-: What you wanted happened, but was completely negated (Napoleon won, but revolutions in the 1880s resulted in a German-dominated European Republic)

Precise Jumping(Defensive)
State one recent hard move that you would want to negate
10+: The hard move is negated, and you get a benefit (Opponent misses you, and hits his ally)
7-9: The hard move is negated (Opponent misses you)
6-: The hard move is negated, but the GM gets to make another hard move (Opponent misses you, but then knocks you out the window instead)

Precise Jumping(Offensive)
Change the result of a recent move you've made.
10+: Treat as if though you rolled 10+ on the original roll.
7-9: Treat as if though you rolled 7-9 on the original roll.
6-: The result of the move you made is negated, and the GM gets to make a hard move.

To keep the changes easy to handle, you might state that Precise Jumping can only be used immediately after the affected move / hard move. That way you won't have to retcon everything that happened between the move and the Precise Jump. A move that happened earlier would then be handled with Distant Jumping, which more easily handles such fudging.

Depending on where you want to put your Distant/Precise levers, you can apply costs to the moves, or remove them outright. Maybe you need some kind of hold to do some or all of the moves. Maybe there are penalties depending on the situation. Maybe the stat that is rolled against changes depending on situation (using some mechanism to charge up your jump device from +0, to +1, +2 and finally +3). Your Reality Collapse of course also serves that.

I also imagine that there is space for a move that could somehow express the insanity that start happening, if two jumpers start altering and counter-altering reality during a fight. That could just be handled by a load of Precise Jumping moves, but another move might be able to streamline that without losing flavor. Haven't quite figured that out yet, though.

Holy crap is this amazingly helpful!!!

The two precise jumping examples (offensive & defensive) are exactly what I'm trying to do but couldn't figure out the mechanism. The changes are intended to be more "localized." (The backstory has that as not always having been the case but explains why massive changes are no longer possible. Briefly - things got out of hand with a galaxy-spanning Cusp-filled war and the Configuration Plane created emissaries that had to step in and resolve the issue, fixing the damage and limiting the amount of information that the CP would make available to "jumpers.")

I really like the hold aspect, too. Maybe that the only way to try and counter would be a roll that you could only attempt by spending a hold? That would limit the insanity. Although Lord knows players would find a way to add it back in :)

Rubberduck, you kick butt!

When I first started writing up the move for Precise Jumping, it was more or less just a variation on the Distant Jumping move. But then I gradually got ideas for changing it, until it became the two moves into the post. I'm pretty happy with that solution as well.

Even if you don't want to have truly distant jumping, you might still want to keep the move in (re-written to match your game). Like I mentioned, the Precise Jumping moves should probably only be used to change the most recent move that has happened. Even if players can't change truly distant events, they might still want to change something that happened two or three moves back. Where Distant Jumpings more fuzzy resolution will help. Maybe change it to:

Distant Jumping
State what kind of change you want in the past, with a resulting present
10+: You get more or less exactly what you wanted (success)
7-9: You get what you wanted, but with complications (succes, MC gets to make a soft move)
6-: The change happened, but only resulted in complications (failure, MC gets to make a hard move)

This more or less mirrors the degrees of success that you get at a Precise Jumping(Offensive) move.

Though, I guess nobody would actually complain if you only had the Precise moves. So.. just an option.