Barf Forth Apocalyptica
barf forth apocalyptica => Apocalypse World => Topic started by: LordEntropy on November 20, 2012, 02:34:18 PM
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I recently ran a game of DW and one question I got asked was why is complete success 10+ as from a probability perspective you are most likely to get somewhere in the 7-9 range and no outright success!
I explained that I thought it was because 7-9 is more interesting than 10+, its not a failure but success with a consequence.
Was I right? Was this the rational behind the breakdown of success failure as it was? Kinda curious really!
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Even a 6 is not necessarily a failure. it's an opportunity for the GM to make a move.
So, the most likely result when you do something is, change of the status quo. You've got a reasonably good chance of getting something out it, but a reasonably good chance of getting something you didn't want as we'll.
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Even a 6 is not necessarily a failure. it's an opportunity for the GM to make a move.
So, the most likely result when you do something is, change of the status quo. You've got a reasonably good chance of getting something out it, but a reasonably good chance of getting something you didn't want as we'll.
That was something I tried to stress to the players as well, that a 6 or less does not mean a simple fail. This game is not about binary success/failure and in fact neither should any game be for that matter.
I guess I am interested in what drove Vincent to pick the numbers the way he did? Did he do in depth analysis of probabilities to come up with 6- ,7-9 and 10+ ? Or was it just a gut feel ?
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He probably didn't need to do the analysis himself, since others have done it already (http://alumnus.caltech.edu/~leif/FRP/probability.html).
Edit: How about some interpretation? Basically, on 2d6, the odds are weighted about 60%/40% in favor of success, but complete success is only about 10% likely.